I can barely contain my indifference to the Oscars, but for some people, watching someone else’s industry awards is the highlight of their February, and who am I to argue.

Over the past 12 months or so, we’ve had the general election predicted by Social Media, and plenty of research has been carried out to understand how online buzz can predict offline movie success, and now, just in time for the oscars, Mashable has run a story giving social media Oscars predictions courtesy of WebTrends research.

According to the social media data collected over the past month from Twitter and the blogosphere, Webtrends have made the following Oscar Predictions:

  • Best Movie: Inception
  • Best Actor: James Franco
  • Best Actress: Natalie Portman
  • Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
  • Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
  • Best Director: David Fincher

I’m going to go out on a limb here, and say that I doubt that more than one of the social media oscars predictions from Webtrends will come true.

Why?

To me, it looks as though the dominant age group of social media users has skewed the data in quite a few cases here.  Whereas the success in predicting movie popularity using Twitter is generally pretty accurate, that’s because the user group is representative of movie goers.  The Oscars are judged by a panel of industry veterans who may be social media users themselves, but come from a group that are generally under represented within the user groups of Twitter.

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